PDF Stock Traders Almanac 2008

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Commodity Trader's Almanac (Almanac Investor Series) [Jeffrey A. Hirsch, Scott W. calendar format based on the bestselling Stock Trader's Almanac.
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Jeffrey Hirsch: I've teamed up with Jordan Kimmel who's a gentleman I've known for about 15 years now and he has an exemplary model, a magnet stock selection process which uses 19 different criteria. It's a blend of value growth and momentum to select stocks that are performing well and have continued to perform well. Using Jordan's stock selection system overlaid with our Stock Trader's Almanac timing signals, seasonal strategies and cycles, if we get a very bullish reading like we had in October, , we'd open up the throttle and go very long with the top ranking magnet stocks and when we get a sell signal, a seasonal sell signal, like in April, , we put the brakes on and take defensive strategies.

John Nyaradi: We're talking here at the end of December. For retail investors, what should we be watching for?

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What's at the top of your mind right now as we head towards the end of the year and ? Jeffrey Hirsch: The year end exit concept is at the top of my mind. During the last secular bear market we spoke about from '66 to '82 there were 4 election year, year end exits. In '68 the high was actually in December and then we had a bear market that took us down to the low in May of In '72 the high was actually January, '73 and then the big bear market that took us down to the bottom at ' In we had a high in April of '81 but December of '80 was pretty close to that and then we had the final bear market of that last secular bear that ended in August, So that's the thing that I'm looking at going forward.

We have a 15 year projection based on our super boom forecast which is for flat to down and tepid market behavior for the next several years so we can clean up the dysfunction in Washington, get rid of the hangover from the crisis and all the debt and asset bubbles and begin a new, another economic boom and another secular bull market which I don't suspect will begin until or Between and then, I'm looking for a test and perhaps a breach of Dow 10, again.


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I put this forecast out in April of I'm concerned that we'll continue to track this projection based upon the history of seasonality and cycles. You can learn more about Jeff's work just by following the link at the bottom of this interview. Lots of exciting things going on here. He has his Almanac and newsletter and now his new fund. Jeff, wonderful chatting with you today, as always. I know we're all looking forward to talking with you again really soon. World globe An icon of the world globe, indicating different international options.

Search icon A magnifying glass. It indicates, "Click to perform a search". While October is a middle-of-the-road month, based on historic seasonality, it is extremely strong in midterm years. Such rough years have made October a relatively weaker month for the major averages, even as it is typically a positive one, especially in midterm-election years.

Over the past 67 years, October has been positive for the blue-chip average 40 times and negative in 27 times. The benchmark index has the same ratio of positive Octobers to negative ones as the Dow.


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  7. It has historically risen 0. Midterm years tend to correspond with extremely strong Octobers, according to the Almanac. While the Dow rises 0. See: Will midterm elections sink the stock market? Read: Investors may be underestimating the risk stocks face from the midterm elections. In another quirk of seasonality, October is the most volatile month of the year, as measured by the standard deviation for the major indexes. That compares with 1. The regard tells an such Wake of linear person and activity with same processors, placing presentations with the University of British Columbia, FPInnovations and Canada Wood.

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